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We are Sure that Windows 12 Does Not Come Soon

Windows 12 logo concept

When will Windows 12, the potential next-generation Windows OS, meet us? When is the accurate Windows 12 release date? This is a question that many Windows users are concerned about.

Unfortunately, we judge based on the available information that it will not be coming in the short term. The following are the arguments supporting this conclusion.

Windows 11’s Lifecycle

Do you remember when Windows 11 was released? October 5, 2021. Yes, it’s just a 2.5 years old baby.

Generally a Windows version has a 10-year lifecycle. I’ve compiled the release and end-of-life (EOL) dates for each version of Windows from Windows XP to Windows 10, and created the following chart.

chart of Lifecycle of Windows Versions made by

Easily you will find that, even Windows Vista, the recognized failed release, whose support surprisingly lasted for a whopping 10 years.

The only noteworthy exception is Windows 8, which was released on October 30, 2012. Its support was terminated on January 12, 2016, lasting for approximately 3 and a half years. However, Microsoft promptly released Windows 8.1 on October 18, 2013, aiming to address the shortcomings of Windows 8. Support for Windows 8.1 continued until 2023, extending the overall lifespan of the Windows 8 series to a decade.

Life cycle of each version of Windows is about 10 years, and Microsoft will try its best to keep them stable in such a cycle. In short, Microsoft is in no rush to retire Windows 11.

Windows 11’s Market Share

If Windows 11 performs extremely poorly in the market, then the likelihood of Microsoft releasing the next generation early would significantly increase, taking lessons from the Windows 8 debacle. However, Windows 11 hasn’t reached that point of underperformance yet.

We have data from statcounter, showing that Windows 11 is in the second place now(April 2024). And we can see how Windows 11 was growing since it was released:

Desktop Windows Version Market Share Worldwide from statcounter
Desktop Windows Version Market Share Worldwide from statcounter

Windows 10 has indeed performed impressively, and even now its market share far exceeds that of Windows 11. But there’s a reason for this—Windows 11 has higher hardware requirements compared to Windows 10, leading to many older computers being unable to upgrade and thus remaining on Windows 10. However, as time progresses, newer computers gradually replace older ones, naturally transitioning to Windows 11. Additionally, Windows 10 is scheduled to reach end-of-life (EOL) in October 2025, at which point the market share it occupies will also shift to Windows 11.

Microsoft still has ample time to develop Windows 11, and there’s plenty of room in the market for it to thrive. So why would Microsoft rush to release Windows 12 that would encroach on Windows 11’s space?

Microsoft’s Branding Strategy

When Microsoft decides to release a new generation of Windows, it’s best that the changes in this iteration are significant, with plenty of new features. Otherwise, it’s better not to release it at all.

Each iteration of Windows possesses its unique attributes, allowing users to distinguish them at a glance.

For instance, Windows XP introduced a fresh user interface design called Luna, along with a series of enhanced multimedia functionalities and networking options, garnering significant attention upon its release.

Windows 7 prioritized enhancing user experience and performance, introducing Aero glass window effects, taskbar preview functionality, faster startup speeds, and more efficient resource management.

Windows 8 experimented with the new Metro-style interface, catering to both touch-screen and traditional desktop operations, emphasizing responsiveness to mobile devices.

Windows 10 embraced the concept of Windows as a Service, introducing a model of continuous updates alongside tighter integration with the cloud and enhanced security features.

The latest Windows 11 focuses on aesthetics and productivity, introducing a revamped user interface design, window management features, and built-in Microsoft Teams integration, aiming to offer a more modern and seamless experience.

Each Windows version brings unique innovations and improvements to users, driving the continual evolution of operating system technology. In the era of AI, Microsoft has introduced Copilot in Windows 11. However, due to limitations in the Windows 11 system interface and hardware capabilities, its AI capabilities are not exceptional. There are rumors suggesting that Microsoft intends to embed an entire AI model into the next generation of Windows, providing native AI capabilities for PCs. This is likely to become the biggest selling point of Windows 12.

In the End

We crave new technology, but innovation takes time to develop. Windows 12 may not arrive quickly, but that’s not entirely a bad thing. Because what we anticipate is a refined, mind-blowing Windows 12, rather than just an ordinary version number. Do you think so?

A nice and careful observer. Mainly focus on News and Reviews.

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